Top of Mind: Russia Risk. By Goldman Sachs Research Newsletter.

What are the potential geopolitical, economic and asset implications of the conflict unfolding between Russia and the West over Ukraine? Goldman Sachs Research's Allison Nathan, senior strategist, explores the topic in her latest Top of Mind through interviews with notable Russia watchers who interpret the lead-up to recent events very differently. At this point, Russia may not relent until it has secured a large swath of Ukrainian territory, says former U.S. senior intelligence officer Andrea Kendall-Taylor, while Dmitri Trenin, Director of the Moscow Center of the Carnegie Endowment, envisions a more permanent rupture between Russia and the West. Meanwhile, Michael Mandelbaum, Professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS, makes the case that NATO expansion, which he characterizes as one of the greatest blunders in the history of American foreign policy, played an important role in laying the groundwork for the current conflict by helping to create a reflexively anti-Western mindset in Russia.
 
So where does the conflict go from here? Nathan turns to sanctions policy expert Eddie Fishman and GS analysts to understand why and how sanctions — and their economic and market impacts — will differ from the 2014 conflict. One thing is clear: a tighter backdrop for commodities leaves them more vulnerable to even small disruptions and the de-globalization trend that these geopolitical risks reflect could reinforce the other major global concern today— inflationary pressures.

Read full report here.